That being said, on July 26, 2015--fifteen months out from the 2016 presidential election--my first bold prediction is that Hillary Clinton will not be the Democrat nominee.
I have believed for a long time--since well before Clinton resigned her position as Secretary of State on Feb. 1, 2013--that she is not in good health. This October she will be 68. In addition, she spent four years at the state department, for better of worse, logging an extraordinary number of miles traveled and countries visited. Most importantly, she is not campaigning right now as someone who has the physical and mental wherewithal to compete against any formidable Democrat opponents, let alone a Republican one were she to win the nomination.
Perhaps it is Clinton's campaign strategy to be less exposed right now to media and public scrutiny. But that doesn't make much sense to me. A massive Clinton offensive right now would help to blunt the potential damage from a Justice Department investigation into her emails and private server debacle and looming Benghazi hearing scheduled for October. But, as you read this, the Bernie Sanders campaign is making headlines not just with his far left ideas, but with the traction he appears to be getting with a vocal, and I think sizeable, part of the Democrat base. The longer Sanders continues his fiery campaign, the more donations he will receive and the more Democrat voters will consider that there may just be another option for their 2016 vote. More dangerous for Clinton, circumstances right now are opening the door for Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren bids in the near future. And why not? Biden will be 73 in November, while Warren recently turned 66. Biden's final opportunity to run for president is 2016. Warren could wait until 2020 to run for president, but only if a Republican wins this time around.
The primary Democrat appeal for voting for a Clinton nomination is that she would then vie to be the first female president in US history. Personally, I don’t think that means as much to Democrat voters as having put into office the first African-American president. Moreover, Obama’s tenure has been so unsuccessful that a portion of Democrat voters have realized voting a candidate because he or she will be “the first” of a gender, ethnicity or race is a misguided reason. But if being the first female president is that potentially important to Democrat voters why wouldn’t Clinton be courting those votes with a sustained effort now? If, for instance, these female Democrat votes were in the bag for Clinton mid-summer of 2015, there would be little reason for Biden or Warren to consider getting in the race later this year, and there would be much less opportunity for Sanders, Martin O’Malley, and Jim Webb to win the nomination.
Which is why I think Clinton’s health is in question, and why it will be the underlying reason she does not win the nomination. From my point of view, she is playing this campaign like she only has a certain amount of energy and vitality that she can expend over the next fifteen months, and so she is holding back. At a time when she should be solidifying her place as the Democrat nominee, flying the banner of the first female presidential nominee, holding the center-left in ideology, she is leaving openings for her current Democrat opponents to build momentum and offering her potential contenders a reason to throw their hats in the ring.
#hillaryclinton #hillarywontwin #politics #democrat